SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millonarios win with a probability of 46.26%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 26.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Millonarios win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.94%) and 2-1 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.7%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (9.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Millonarios would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Millonarios | Draw | Penarol |
46.26% ( -0.08) | 27% ( 0.01) | 26.74% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 47.44% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.84% ( 0.02) | 57.16% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.98% ( 0.01) | 78.02% ( -0.01) |
| Millonarios Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.31% ( -0.03) | 24.69% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.78% ( -0.04) | 59.22% ( 0.04) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.99% ( 0.07) | 37.01% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.2% ( 0.07) | 73.8% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Millonarios | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 12.78% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.94% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 8.89% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.17% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.14% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.46% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.45% ( -0)Other @ 2.38% Total : 46.26% | 1-1 @ 12.7% 0-0 @ 9.14% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.42% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.74% Total : 27% | 0-1 @ 9.08% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.31% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.51% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.09% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.46% ( 0)Other @ 1.78% Total : 26.74% |
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