SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 44.48%. A draw had a probability of 29.5% and a win for Millonarios had a probability of 25.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.32%) and 2-1 (7.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.1%), while for a Millonarios win it was 0-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Millonarios |
44.48% ( -0.07) | 29.53% ( 0.02) | 25.98% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 40.45% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.27% ( -0.03) | 65.73% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.6% ( -0.03) | 84.4% ( 0.02) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.36% ( -0.06) | 29.63% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.32% ( -0.07) | 65.68% ( 0.07) |
| Millonarios Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.49% ( 0.03) | 42.51% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.13% ( 0.02) | 78.87% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Millonarios |
| 1-0 @ 15.32% 2-0 @ 9.32% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 7.97% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.78% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.23% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.38% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 1.35% Total : 44.48% | 1-1 @ 13.1% 0-0 @ 12.59% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.41% ( -0)Other @ 0.42% Total : 29.52% | 0-1 @ 10.77% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.61% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.61% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.6% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.32% ( 0)2-3 @ 0.97% Other @ 1.1% Total : 25.98% |
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