Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 55.49%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Deportivo La Guaira had a probability of 18.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.81%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.79%), while for a Deportivo La Guaira win it was 0-1 (7.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ceara would win this match.
