Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 52.13%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Independiente had a probability of 20.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.97%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.27%), while for a Independiente win it was 0-1 (8.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ceara would win this match.
