Ceara have proven tough to beat in recent times, but we think that Sao Paulo can avoid defeat, too, meaning they would progress to the semi-finals.
It is tough to envisage a particularly open game with the onus on the hosts to attack, especially with this not being their usual gameplan.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 43.2%. A draw had a probability of 31% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 25.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.26%) and 2-1 (7.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.6%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (11.65%).
0.06) 
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