SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 19 | Arsenal Sarandi | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 20 | Independiente | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 21 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 52.98%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Deportivo La Guaira had a probability of 20.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.14%), while for a Deportivo La Guaira win it was 0-1 (8.23%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Independiente | Draw | Deportivo La Guaira |
52.98% ( -0.2) | 26.47% ( 0.07) | 20.54% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 42.77% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.99% ( -0.11) | 60.01% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.75% ( -0.09) | 80.25% ( 0.08) |
| Independiente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.16% ( -0.13) | 22.84% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.43% ( -0.2) | 56.57% ( 0.19) |
| Deportivo La Guaira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.43% ( 0.07) | 44.56% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.42% ( 0.06) | 80.58% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Independiente | Draw | Deportivo La Guaira |
| 1-0 @ 15.03% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 11.09% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 8.97% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.46% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 4.41% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 2.02% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.78% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.63% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.58% Total : 52.98% | 1-1 @ 12.14% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 10.18% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 3.62% ( 0)Other @ 0.52% Total : 26.46% | 0-1 @ 8.23% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 4.91% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 3.33% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 0.98% ( 0)Other @ 1.78% Total : 20.54% |
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