SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Godoy Cruz | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 17 | San Lorenzo | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 18 | Lanus | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 19 | Arsenal Sarandi | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 20 | Independiente | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 21 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | -2 | 12 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 39.43%. A win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 33.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (7.03%). The likeliest San Lorenzo win was 1-0 (9.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Independiente |
33.7% ( 0.11) | 26.87% ( -0.04) | 39.43% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 51.04% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.92% ( 0.2) | 54.08% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.49% ( 0.16) | 75.51% ( -0.16) |
| San Lorenzo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.75% ( 0.17) | 30.25% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.58% ( 0.21) | 66.42% ( -0.2) |
| Independiente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.18% ( 0.06) | 26.82% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.89% ( 0.07) | 62.11% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Independiente |
| 1-0 @ 9.7% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 7.63% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.8% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.04% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.31% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.31% Total : 33.7% | 1-1 @ 12.76% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.11% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 5.02% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.97% Total : 26.86% | 0-1 @ 10.67% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 8.4% ( 0)0-2 @ 7.03% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3.69% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.08% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.21% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.01% ( -0)Other @ 2.13% Total : 39.42% |
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