Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colon win with a probability of 48.4%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Independiente had a probability of 25.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colon win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.4%) and 2-1 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.49%), while for a Independiente win it was 0-1 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
