After only narrowly missing out on the Copa Libertadores knockout stage, Independiente del Valle have a point to prove and will aim to go ahead on home turf, and we back them to take a narrow lead into the away leg in what should be a tight contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 51.32%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Lanus had a probability of 21.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.03%) and 2-1 (8.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.38%), while for a Lanus win it was 0-1 (8.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Independiente del Valle in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Independiente del Valle.
-0.03) 
0.06) 
