Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 42.6%. A win for Lanus had a probability of 31.3% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.48%). The likeliest Lanus win was 0-1 (8.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.
