Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 51.11%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 22.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.54%) and 2-1 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.37%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 0-1 (8.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Penarol in this match.
