SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 57.42%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 18.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.24%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.29%), while for a Fenix win it was 0-1 (6.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Fenix |
57.42% ( -0.34) | 23.9% ( 0.15) | 18.67% ( 0.19) |
| Both teams to score 46.9% ( -0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.95% ( -0.31) | 53.05% ( 0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.36% ( -0.26) | 74.63% ( 0.26) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.71% ( -0.25) | 18.29% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.64% ( -0.41) | 49.35% ( 0.41) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.39% ( 0.05) | 42.6% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.04% ( 0.04) | 78.95% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Fenix |
| 1-0 @ 13.23% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 11.24% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 6.37% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 5.43% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 2.71% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.32% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.31% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 0.99% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 0.92% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.31% Total : 57.41% | 1-1 @ 11.29% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 7.79% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 4.09% ( -0)Other @ 0.72% Total : 23.9% | 0-1 @ 6.65% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 2.84% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.16% Other @ 1.84% Total : 18.67% |
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