Although they are not at the top of their game right now, Dorival Junior always seems to push the right buttons to get his teams out of a slump, and having been in a similar position in the semi-finals last year should serve as a nice reminder that the current deficit they are faced with is far from insurmountable.
San Lorenzo have not been as tidy or organised defensively away from home, and we believe they will leave some gaps for Sao Paulo to exploit.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 58.22%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 15.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.11%) and 2-1 (8.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.33%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (7.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Sao Paulo in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Sao Paulo.
-0.54) 
0.34) 
