Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 57.04%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Como had a probability of 19.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.02%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.3%), while for a Como win it was 0-1 (6.63%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Parma would win this match.
