SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 54.91%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Brest had a probability of 21.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.83%) and 0-2 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.02%), while for a Brest win it was 1-0 (6.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Brest | Draw | Lens |
21.84% ( 0.1) | 23.25% ( 0.03) | 54.91% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 53.64% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.48% ( 0) | 46.52% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.2% ( 0) | 68.8% ( -0) |
| Brest Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.48% ( 0.1) | 35.52% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.71% ( 0.1) | 72.29% ( -0.11) |
| Lens Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.18% ( -0.05) | 16.82% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.2% ( -0.08) | 46.8% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Brest | Draw | Lens |
| 1-0 @ 6.18% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 5.71% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 3.2% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 1.97% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.76% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.1% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.93% Total : 21.84% | 1-1 @ 11.02% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.97% 2-2 @ 5.09% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.04% ( 0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.25% | 0-1 @ 10.64% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.83% ( -0)0-2 @ 9.49% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 5.84% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 5.64% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 3.02% ( 0)1-4 @ 2.6% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 2.51% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.35% ( -0)1-5 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 3.05% Total : 54.9% |
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