Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 55.91%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 22.5% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.22%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (5.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for De Graafschap in this match.
-0.09) 
0.01) 
