Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 41.87%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 32.59% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (7.03%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 1-0 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong AZ would win this match.
