Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emmen win with a probability of 47.81%. A win for Jong PSV had a probability of 27.54% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Emmen win was 0-1 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.43%) and 0-2 (8.08%). The likeliest Jong PSV win was 1-0 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Emmen would win this match.
