SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 83.12%. A draw had a probability of 10.8% and a win for NEC had a probability of 6.05%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.8%) and 4-0 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.89%), while for a NEC win it was 1-2 (1.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | NEC |
83.12% ( -1.64) | 10.83% ( 0.88) | 6.05% ( 0.77) |
| Both teams to score 51.83% ( 1.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 74.87% ( -1.15) | 25.13% ( 1.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 54.92% ( -1.51) | 45.08% ( 1.52) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.63% ( -0.44) | 4.37% ( 0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 81.96% ( -1.41) | 18.04% ( 1.42) |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.2% ( 1.43) | 45.8% ( -1.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.43% ( 1.09) | 81.57% ( -1.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | NEC |
| 3-0 @ 10.23% ( -0.25) 2-0 @ 9.8% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 8.01% ( -0.48)3-1 @ 7.99% ( 0.12)2-1 @ 7.66% ( 0.37)1-0 @ 6.26% ( 0.26)4-1 @ 6.26% ( -0.11)5-0 @ 5.02% ( -0.48)5-1 @ 3.92% ( -0.21)3-2 @ 3.12% ( 0.17)6-0 @ 2.62% ( -0.35)4-2 @ 2.44% ( 0.05)6-1 @ 2.05% ( -0.18)5-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.02)7-0 @ 1.17% ( -0.2)7-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.12)Other @ 4.13% Total : 83.11% | 1-1 @ 4.89% ( 0.39) 2-2 @ 2.99% ( 0.26)0-0 @ 2% ( 0.15)Other @ 0.95% Total : 10.83% | 1-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.22) 0-1 @ 1.56% ( 0.17)Other @ 2.58% Total : 6.05% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
