SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 60.9%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Vitesse had a probability of 18.59%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.26%) and 0-1 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.46%), while for a Vitesse win it was 2-1 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Ajax in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Ajax.
| Result | ||
| Vitesse | Draw | Ajax |
18.59% ( -0.07) | 20.51% ( 0.08) | 60.9% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 57.63% ( -0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.29% ( -0.52) | 38.7% ( 0.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.99% ( -0.55) | 61.01% ( 0.55) |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.71% ( -0.39) | 34.28% ( 0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.01% ( -0.42) | 70.98% ( 0.42) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.7% ( -0.16) | 12.3% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.92% ( -0.34) | 38.08% ( 0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitesse | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 5.06% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 4.51% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 2.42% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.89% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 1.81% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.9% Total : 18.59% | 1-1 @ 9.46% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.31% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 4.22% ( 0.1)3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.2% Total : 20.51% | 1-2 @ 9.91% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 9.26% ( 0.11)0-1 @ 8.84% ( 0.16)1-3 @ 6.92% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 6.47% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 3.71% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 3.63% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 3.39% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.94% ( -0.04)1-5 @ 1.52% ( -0.03)0-5 @ 1.42% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.9% Total : 60.9% |
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