SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 88.85%. A draw had a probability of 7.8% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 3.34%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.41%) and 4-0 (10.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.65%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 1-2 (1.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | PEC Zwolle |
88.85% ( -0.71) | 7.81% ( 0.43) | 3.34% ( 0.28) |
| Both teams to score 43.79% ( 0.89) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 76.72% ( -0.58) | 23.29% ( 0.58) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 57.36% ( -0.78) | 42.65% ( 0.79) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.78% ( -0.18) | 3.23% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 85.7% ( -0.64) | 14.3% ( 0.64) |
| PEC Zwolle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.24% ( 1.01) | 54.76% ( -1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.26% ( 0.59) | 87.74% ( -0.59) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | PEC Zwolle |
| 3-0 @ 11.92% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 10.41% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 10.23% ( -0.28)3-1 @ 7.18% ( 0.15)5-0 @ 7.03% ( -0.32)2-1 @ 6.27% ( 0.23)4-1 @ 6.16% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 6.07% ( 0.14)5-1 @ 4.23% ( -0.06)6-0 @ 4.02% ( -0.26)6-1 @ 2.42% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 2.16% ( 0.11)7-0 @ 1.97% ( -0.16)4-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.06)5-2 @ 1.28% ( 0.02)7-1 @ 1.19% ( -0.06)Other @ 4.44% Total : 88.84% | 1-1 @ 3.65% ( 0.19) 2-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.12)0-0 @ 1.77% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.5% Total : 7.81% | 1-2 @ 1.1% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.07)Other @ 1.18% Total : 3.34% |
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