SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 42.46%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 36.21% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.26%) and 2-3 (4.74%). The likeliest Ajax win was 2-1 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Feyenoord |
36.21% ( -1.91) | 21.33% ( -0.15) | 42.46% ( 2.05) |
| Both teams to score 71.82% ( 0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.59% ( 0.48) | 27.4% ( -0.49) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52% ( 0.61) | 47.99% ( -0.61) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.55% ( -0.58) | 16.44% ( 0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.87% ( -1.05) | 46.12% ( 1.04) |
| Feyenoord Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.95% ( 0.94) | 14.04% ( -0.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.39% ( 1.82) | 41.61% ( -1.82) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Feyenoord |
| 2-1 @ 7.39% ( -0.26) 3-1 @ 4.45% ( -0.25)3-2 @ 4.36% ( -0.09)1-0 @ 4.17% ( -0.21)2-0 @ 3.76% ( -0.27)3-0 @ 2.26% ( -0.21)4-1 @ 2.01% ( -0.15)4-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.08)4-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.12)Other @ 3.53% Total : 36.21% | 1-1 @ 8.18% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 7.25% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 2.86% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 2.31% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.73% Total : 21.33% | 1-2 @ 8.03% ( 0.15) 1-3 @ 5.26% ( 0.27)2-3 @ 4.74% ( 0.15)0-1 @ 4.53% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 4.45% ( 0.16)0-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.2)1-4 @ 2.58% ( 0.21)2-4 @ 2.33% ( 0.15)0-4 @ 1.43% ( 0.14)3-4 @ 1.4% ( 0.06)1-5 @ 1.01% ( 0.11)2-5 @ 0.91% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.87% Total : 42.46% |
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