SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PEC Zwolle win with a probability of 49.1%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a PEC Zwolle win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Heracles win was 0-1 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PEC Zwolle would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PEC Zwolle | Draw | Heracles |
49.1% ( -0.18) | 24.36% ( -0.1) | 26.53% ( 0.28) |
| Both teams to score 55.28% ( 0.56) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.16% ( 0.63) | 46.84% ( -0.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.9% ( 0.58) | 69.1% ( -0.59) |
| PEC Zwolle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.87% ( 0.17) | 19.13% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.23% ( 0.29) | 50.78% ( -0.29) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.36% ( 0.55) | 31.64% ( -0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.94% ( 0.63) | 68.06% ( -0.63) |
| Score Analysis |
| PEC Zwolle | Draw | Heracles |
| 1-0 @ 10.01% ( -0.21) 2-1 @ 9.53% ( -0)2-0 @ 8.28% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 5.25% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 4.56% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.02% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 2.17% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.89% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.25% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.14% Total : 49.1% | 1-1 @ 11.52% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 6.06% ( -0.16)2-2 @ 5.48% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.36% | 0-1 @ 6.97% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 6.63% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 4.01% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.75% Total : 26.53% |
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