Heerenveen are the more in-form side coming into this one, but AZ boast the superior team on paper, and we fancy them to get the job done, albeit by only a narrow margin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 63.32%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 15.19%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.06%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.2%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 0-1 (5.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.

Result
AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Heerenveen
63.32%	21.5%	15.19%

Both teams to score 47.11%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.93%

49.07%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.86%

71.15%

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.13%

14.87%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.79%

43.21%

Heerenveen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.34%

44.66%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.34%

80.66%

Score Analysis

AZ Alkmaar 63.31%

Heerenveen 15.19%

Draw 21.5%

AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Heerenveen
1-0 @ 12.65% 2-0 @ 12.06% 2-1 @ 9.72% 3-0 @ 7.66% 3-1 @ 6.18% 4-0 @ 3.65% 4-1 @ 2.94% 3-2 @ 2.49% 5-0 @ 1.39% 4-2 @ 1.19% 5-1 @ 1.12% Other @ 2.25% Total : 63.31%	1-1 @ 10.2% 0-0 @ 6.64% 2-2 @ 3.92% Other @ 0.74% Total : 21.5%	0-1 @ 5.35% 1-2 @ 4.11% 0-2 @ 2.16% 1-3 @ 1.11% 2-3 @ 1.05% Other @ 1.41% Total : 15.19%