SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | FC Twente | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Feyenoord | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Chaves | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Vizela | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 58.27%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 19.57%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Gil Vicente |
58.27% ( 0.25) | 22.16% ( -0.01) | 19.57% ( -0.25) |
| Both teams to score 53.74% ( -0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.31% ( -0.33) | 44.69% ( 0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.94% ( -0.32) | 67.05% ( 0.32) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.96% ( -0.03) | 15.03% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.48% ( -0.06) | 43.52% ( 0.06) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.25% ( -0.45) | 36.75% ( 0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.46% ( -0.45) | 73.54% ( 0.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 10.46% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 9.93% 2-0 @ 9.92% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 6.27% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.27% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.97% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.13% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.6% Total : 58.26% | 1-1 @ 10.48% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 5.52% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 4.97% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.16% | 0-1 @ 5.53% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 2.77% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.7% Total : 19.57% |
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