Both sides clearly know the way to goal - Twente have already scored 11 times in four competitive games; Fiorentina netted three in their first match at the weekend - so this could be an open encounter. The hosts should have enough nous, though, to take a one-goal lead to the Netherlands next week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 45.48%. A win for FC Twente had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.63%) and 2-0 (6.03%). The likeliest FC Twente win was 1-2 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Fiorentina in this match.

Result
Fiorentina	Draw	FC Twente
45.48% ( 0.14)	22.68% ( 0.06)	31.85% ( -0.2)

Both teams to score 64.95% (

-0.32)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.28% (

-0.38)

35.72% (

0.39)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.21% (

-0.43)

57.79% (

0.43)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.77% (

-0.09)

16.23% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.26% (

-0.18)

45.74% (

0.18)

FC Twente Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.53% (

-0.3)

22.47% (

0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.98% (

-0.45)

56.02% (

0.45)

Score Analysis

Fiorentina 45.48%

FC Twente 31.85%

Draw 22.68%

Fiorentina	Draw	FC Twente
2-1 @ 9% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 6.63% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 6.03% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 5.46% ( 0) 3-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.65% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.48% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.85% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.66% ( 0.01) 4-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 0.9% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.82% Total : 45.48%	1-1 @ 9.9% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 6.72% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 3.65% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.38% Total : 22.68%	1-2 @ 7.39% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.45% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 4.06% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.68% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 3.34% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.25% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.28% Total : 31.85%