Having significantly improved throughout Alonso's tenure, Leverkusen should have too much quality for their opponents on Thursday.
However, the Hungarian champions are likely to battle hard and will retain a threat in transition with the quality of Adama Traore and Tokmac Nguen, so it would be little surprise if they score to keep the tie alive ahead of the return leg in Budapest next week.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 58.2%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Ferencvaros had a probability of 20.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.34%) and 2-0 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.05%), while for a Ferencvaros win it was 1-2 (5.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
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