Ludogorets know that they must capitalise on playing in front of their fans if they are to be in the driving seat of the tie ahead of next week's return leg. We are backing them to get the job done come the sound of the final whistle.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FK Zalgiris win with a probability of 41.87%. A win for Ludogorets Razgrad had a probability of 32.82% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a FK Zalgiris win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.87%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Ludogorets Razgrad win was 1-0 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Ludogorets Razgrad would win this match.
0.1) 
-0.11) 
