Basking in the new manager bounce and also out for a slice of vengeance for events in the summer, the stage is set for Poland to finally break their loss-win streak with back-to-back Group E triumphs on Sunday.
Moldova undoubtedly command respect given their unexpected feats in the section so far, but with their morale taking a hit in Sweden, repeating June's historic win over Poland at the hosts' Warsaw base is surely a step too far.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Poland win with a probability of 53.29%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Moldova had a probability of 20.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Poland win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.34%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a Moldova win it was 0-1 (8.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
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