Newport may not have been on the finest form this season, signalled by the change in management and their precarity at the bottom end of League Two. Derby have the better players on paper, with many of their first-teamers having been Championship players up to very recently.
However, the Exiles' history in the FA Cup could well drive the team to victory at Rodney Parade. With the help of the experienced Dolan, Willmott and Day in particular, an upset is definitely on the cards this Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 39.74%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 33.01% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
0.92) 
-1.37) 
