SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 59.83%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Penafiel had a probability of 17.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.62%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.87%), while for a Penafiel win it was 0-1 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Famalicao | Draw | Penafiel |
59.83% ( -0.13) | 22.97% ( 0.03) | 17.19% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 46.95% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.43% ( 0.04) | 51.56% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.64% ( 0.04) | 73.36% ( -0.04) |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.12% ( -0.03) | 16.88% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.09% ( -0.05) | 46.91% ( 0.05) |
| Penafiel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.48% ( 0.15) | 43.51% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.28% ( 0.12) | 79.72% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Famalicao | Draw | Penafiel |
| 1-0 @ 13.06% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 11.62% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 9.67% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.89% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 5.74% ( -0)4-0 @ 3.07% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.55% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.39% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.09% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.06% ( 0)5-1 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 1.78% Total : 59.82% | 1-1 @ 10.87% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.35% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.02% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.73% Total : 22.97% | 0-1 @ 6.11% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 4.52% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 2.54% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.64% Total : 17.19% |
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