Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 50.84%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Penafiel had a probability of 22.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.22%) and 1-2 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.33%), while for a Penafiel win it was 1-0 (8.38%).