SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cape Verde | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Ghana | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Egypt | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Mozambique | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Nigeria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 41.75%. A win for Mozambique had a probability of 29.7% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.2%) and 1-2 (8.19%). The likeliest Mozambique win was 1-0 (10.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nigeria would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mozambique | Draw | Nigeria |
29.7% ( 0.02) | 28.56% ( -0.01) | 41.75% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 44.88% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.76% ( 0.03) | 61.24% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.82% ( 0.02) | 81.17% ( -0.02) |
| Mozambique Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.15% ( 0.03) | 36.85% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.36% ( 0.03) | 73.64% ( -0.03) |
| Nigeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.06% ( 0.01) | 28.94% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.18% ( 0.01) | 64.82% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mozambique | Draw | Nigeria |
| 1-0 @ 10.64% 2-1 @ 6.59% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.31% ( 0)3-1 @ 2.19% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.77% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.36% ( 0)Other @ 1.83% Total : 29.69% | 1-1 @ 13.2% 0-0 @ 10.66% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.09% ( 0)Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.55% | 0-1 @ 13.22% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.2% ( -0.01)1-2 @ 8.19% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.39% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.38% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.69% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.05% 1-4 @ 1.05% ( 0)Other @ 1.58% Total : 41.74% |
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