SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 3 | 7 | 7 |
| 2 | USA | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Iran | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Wales | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Argentina | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Poland | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Mexico | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | -2 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 36.37%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 35.76% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.82%) and 2-0 (6.63%). The likeliest Mexico win was 0-1 (11.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| USA | Draw | Mexico |
36.37% ( 1.55) | 27.87% ( 0.03) | 35.76% ( -1.57) |
| Both teams to score 48.19% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.24% ( -0.05) | 57.76% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.5% ( -0.04) | 78.5% ( 0.04) |
| USA Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.61% ( 0.96) | 30.39% ( -0.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.42% ( 1.13) | 66.58% ( -1.13) |
| Mexico Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.23% ( -1) | 30.77% ( 1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.97% ( -1.19) | 67.04% ( 1.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| USA | Draw | Mexico |
| 1-0 @ 11.13% ( 0.31) 2-1 @ 7.82% ( 0.21)2-0 @ 6.63% ( 0.35)3-1 @ 3.1% ( 0.16)3-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.21)3-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.29% Total : 36.36% | 1-1 @ 13.12% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.35% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0)Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.86% | 0-1 @ 11.02% ( -0.28) 1-2 @ 7.74% ( -0.21)0-2 @ 6.5% ( -0.36)1-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.17)0-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.22)2-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.11% Total : 35.76% |
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