SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Netherlands | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Qatar | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 52.98%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for USA had a probability of 21.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.64%) and 2-1 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.04%), while for a USA win it was 0-1 (7.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Netherlands would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Netherlands | Draw | USA |
52.98% ( -0.45) | 25.74% ( 0.31) | 21.28% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 45.57% ( -0.65) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.17% ( -0.95) | 56.83% ( 0.95) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.24% ( -0.77) | 77.76% ( 0.76) |
| Netherlands Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.48% ( -0.58) | 21.52% ( 0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.42% ( -0.89) | 54.57% ( 0.88) |
| USA Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.07% ( -0.4) | 41.93% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.62% ( -0.35) | 78.37% ( 0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Netherlands | Draw | USA |
| 1-0 @ 13.86% ( 0.26) 2-0 @ 10.64% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 9.25% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 5.45% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 4.74% ( -0.13)4-0 @ 2.09% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 1.82% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.05% Total : 52.97% | 1-1 @ 12.04% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 9.02% ( 0.32)2-2 @ 4.02% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.65% Total : 25.74% | 0-1 @ 7.84% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 5.24% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.41% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 1.12% Total : 21.28% |
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