SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gamba Osaka win with a probability of 39.38%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 34.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gamba Osaka win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 (9.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gamba Osaka | Draw | Sagan Tosu |
39.38% ( -0.12) | 26.38% ( 0.08) | 34.25% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 52.73% ( -0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.02% ( -0.34) | 51.98% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.28% ( -0.29) | 73.72% ( 0.29) |
| Gamba Osaka Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.13% ( -0.22) | 25.87% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 39.15% ( -0.3) | 60.85% ( 0.3) |
| Sagan Tosu Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.14% ( -0.14) | 28.86% ( 0.14) |
