Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sagan Tosu win with a probability of 49.6%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Gamba Osaka had a probability of 23.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.51%), while for a Gamba Osaka win it was 0-1 (8.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sagan Tosu would win this match.
0.26) 
-0.29) 
