Alaves will certainly be the fresher of the two teams, and they have previous when it comes to positive results away from home against Barcelona. Xavi's side will be desperate to bounce back from their European disappointment, though, and we are expecting them to secure all three points ahead of the international break.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 68.54%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 12.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.92%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.1%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (4.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
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