There has not actually been a La Liga draw between these two sides since October 2021, with the last five meetings in Spain's top flight producing a winner; we are finding it difficult to back either with any real confidence here, though, and the points may ultimately be shared in a low-scoring draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 39.34%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 31.43% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.79%) and 0-2 (7.72%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 (11.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.

Result
Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Real Sociedad
31.43% ( -5.21)	29.23% ( -0.9)	39.34% ( 6.11)

Both teams to score 43.69% (

1.98)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37% (

2.56)

63% (

-2.56)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.53% (

1.82)

82.47% (

-1.82)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.51% (

-2.25)

36.49% (

2.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.72% (

-2.34)

73.28% (

2.35)

Real Sociedad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.79% (

5.37)

31.21% (

-5.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.45% (

5.82)

67.55% (

-5.82)

Score Analysis

Athletic Bilbao 31.42%

Real Sociedad 39.34%

Draw 29.22%

Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Real Sociedad
1-0 @ 11.47% ( -1.95) 2-1 @ 6.74% ( -0.5) 2-0 @ 5.79% ( -1.41) 3-1 @ 2.27% ( -0.32) 3-0 @ 1.95% ( -0.63) 3-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.9% Total : 31.42%	1-1 @ 13.36% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 11.38% ( -1.14) 2-2 @ 3.92% ( 0.29) Other @ 0.55% Total : 29.22%	0-1 @ 13.26% ( 0.67) 1-2 @ 7.79% ( 1) 0-2 @ 7.72% ( 1.39) 1-3 @ 3.02% ( 0.75) 0-3 @ 3% ( 0.87) 2-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.3) Other @ 3.03% Total : 39.34%