Atletico are a difficult team to back at the moment with any real confidence, and they have found it difficult at home this season, but Real Valladolid's away record has been poor. As a result, we are backing Simeone's side to collect all three points in front of their own supporters, albeit by the narrowest of margins.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 57.3%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 19%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.23%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 0-1 (6.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
0.06) 
-0.01) 
