Both of these sides have drawn eight times in the league this season, so it would not be a surprise to see the points shared on Tuesday, which has been the case in their last three meetings. However, Getafe's form ahead of the winter break was excellent, and we are backing them to shade this clash.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Getafe win with a probability of 44.6%. A draw had a probability of 29.8% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 25.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Getafe win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.44%) and 2-1 (7.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.11%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
0.38) 
-0.55) 
