Rayo's recent record against Barcelona will hand them confidence, and the visitors are not exactly in their best moment when it comes to performances and results. The Catalan giants often find a way to pick up wins when they need to, though, and we are backing them to secure an important three points this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 57.37%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 20.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.92%) and 0-2 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.5%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 1-0 (5.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
-0.31) 
0.02) 
