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La Liga | Gameweek 5
Sep 16, 2024 at 8pm UK
Estadio de Vallecas
OL

Rayo Vallecano
3 - 1
Osasuna

Mumin (50'), Ratiu (66'), Lopez (90+5')
Camello (59'), Mumin (78'), Lopez (89')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Garcia (27')
Zaragoza (19'), Moreno (20'), Moncayola (42')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Espanyol 2-1 Rayo Vallecano
Saturday, August 31 at 6.15pm in La Liga
Last Game: Osasuna 3-2 Celta Vigo
Sunday, September 1 at 4pm in La Liga

We said: Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Osasuna

Osasuna may have avoided defeat in three of their first four league matches, but that solitary loss did take place in their only away game of the season. Los Rojillos have also lost their last two away games against Rayo, and we think that they could experience another disappointing trip to Vallecas on Monday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 45.96%. A win for Osasuna had a probability of 27.02% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.87%) and 2-0 (8.85%). The likeliest Osasuna win was 0-1 (9.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.

Result
Rayo VallecanoDrawOsasuna
45.96% (-0.431 -0.43) 27.02% (0.026 0.03) 27.02% (0.4 0.4)
Both teams to score 47.6% (0.205 0.2)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.94% (0.122 0.12)57.06% (-0.126 -0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.06% (0.097999999999999 0.1)77.94% (-0.101 -0.1)
Rayo Vallecano Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.21% (-0.15600000000001 -0.16)24.79% (0.152 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.64% (-0.21599999999999 -0.22)59.36% (0.213 0.21)
Osasuna Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.28% (0.4 0.4)36.72% (-0.403 -0.4)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.5% (0.401 0.4)73.5% (-0.405 -0.41)
Score Analysis
    Rayo Vallecano 45.96%
    Osasuna 27.02%
    Draw 27.01%
Rayo VallecanoDrawOsasuna
1-0 @ 12.69% (-0.12 -0.12)
2-1 @ 8.87% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
2-0 @ 8.85% (-0.121 -0.12)
3-1 @ 4.12% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-0 @ 4.12% (-0.075 -0.08)
3-2 @ 2.07% (0.008 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.44% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.44% (-0.033 -0.03)
Other @ 2.36%
Total : 45.96%
1-1 @ 12.71% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
0-0 @ 9.1% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
2-2 @ 4.44% (0.037 0.04)
Other @ 0.75%
Total : 27.01%
0-1 @ 9.12% (0.055999999999999 0.06)
1-2 @ 6.37% (0.081 0.08)
0-2 @ 4.57% (0.077 0.08)
1-3 @ 2.13% (0.05 0.05)
0-3 @ 1.53% (0.043 0.04)
2-3 @ 1.48% (0.028 0.03)
Other @ 1.83%
Total : 27.02%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Espanyol 2-1 Rayo Vallecano
Saturday, August 31 at 6.15pm in La Liga
Last Game: Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Barcelona
Tuesday, August 27 at 8.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Getafe 0-0 Rayo Vallecano
Saturday, August 24 at 8.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Real Sociedad 1-2 Rayo Vallecano
Sunday, August 18 at 6pm in La Liga
Last Game: Wolves 0-1 Rayo Vallecano
Saturday, August 10 at 3pm in Club Friendlies 3
Last Game: Bournemouth 1-0 Rayo Vallecano
Sunday, August 4 at 3pm in Club Friendlies 3
Last Game: Osasuna 3-2 Celta Vigo
Sunday, September 1 at 4pm in La Liga
Last Game: Girona 4-0 Osasuna
Thursday, August 29 at 6pm in La Liga
Last Game: Osasuna 1-0 Mallorca
Saturday, August 24 at 4pm in La Liga
Last Game: Osasuna 1-1 Leganes
Saturday, August 17 at 6pm in La Liga
Last Game: Osasuna 1-2 Alaves
Saturday, August 10 at 6pm in Club Friendlies 3
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Osasuna
Saturday, August 3 at 7.30pm in Club Friendlies 3


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