SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 44.09%. A win for Dundalk had a probability of 29.21% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.85%) and 0-2 (8.15%). The likeliest Dundalk win was 1-0 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Dundalk | Draw | Derry City |
29.21% ( 0.74) | 26.7% ( -0.07) | 44.09% ( -0.67) |
| Both teams to score 49.88% ( 0.64) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.22% ( 0.62) | 54.78% ( -0.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.91% ( 0.51) | 76.09% ( -0.51) |
| Dundalk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.24% ( 0.89) | 33.76% ( -0.89) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.58% ( 0.96) | 70.42% ( -0.96) |
| Derry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.3% ( -0.05) | 24.7% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.76% ( -0.08) | 59.24% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Dundalk | Draw | Derry City |
| 1-0 @ 9.05% ( 0) 2-1 @ 6.88% ( 0.16)2-0 @ 4.92% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 2.49% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 1.78% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.36% Total : 29.21% | 1-1 @ 12.66% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.34% ( -0.2)2-2 @ 4.81% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.89% Total : 26.7% | 0-1 @ 11.66% ( -0.3) 1-2 @ 8.85% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 8.15% ( -0.22)1-3 @ 4.13% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.8% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.44% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.48% Total : 44.09% |
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