SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 59.33%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Dundalk had a probability of 16.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.12%) and 1-2 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.1%), while for a Dundalk win it was 1-0 (6.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derry City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Dundalk | Draw | Derry City |
16.89% ( 0.73) | 23.77% ( 0.31) | 59.33% ( -1.05) |
| Both teams to score 44.15% ( 0.54) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.98% ( -0.06) | 55.02% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.71% ( -0.05) | 76.29% ( 0.05) |
| Dundalk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.05% ( 0.93) | 45.95% ( -0.92) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.32% ( 0.71) | 81.68% ( -0.71) |
| Derry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.68% ( -0.41) | 18.31% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.6% ( -0.69) | 49.4% ( 0.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| Dundalk | Draw | Derry City |
| 1-0 @ 6.54% ( 0.18) 2-1 @ 4.32% ( 0.17)2-0 @ 2.54% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 1.12% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 0.95% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.42% Total : 16.89% | 1-1 @ 11.1% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 8.41% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 3.67% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.58% Total : 23.76% | 0-1 @ 14.28% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 12.12% ( -0.29)1-2 @ 9.43% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 6.86% ( -0.26)1-3 @ 5.34% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 2.91% ( -0.15)1-4 @ 2.26% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.03)0-5 @ 0.99% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.06% Total : 59.32% |
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