SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 61.25%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Dundalk had a probability of 16.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.67%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.56%), while for a Dundalk win it was 0-1 (5.73%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derry City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derry City | Draw | Dundalk |
61.25% ( -0.02) | 22.26% ( -0.11) | 16.49% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 47.65% ( 0.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.13% ( 0.64) | 49.87% ( -0.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.13% ( 0.57) | 71.87% ( -0.57) |
| Derry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.19% ( 0.21) | 15.81% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.03% ( 0.39) | 44.97% ( -0.39) |
| Dundalk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.59% ( 0.55) | 43.4% ( -0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.37% ( 0.46) | 79.63% ( -0.46) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derry City | Draw | Dundalk |
| 1-0 @ 12.65% ( -0.24) 2-0 @ 11.67% ( -0.13)2-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 7.18% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 5.99% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 3.31% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.76% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.5% ( 0.07)5-0 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.15% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 1.02% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.05% Total : 61.24% | 1-1 @ 10.56% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.86% ( -0.18)2-2 @ 4.07% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.77% Total : 22.26% | 0-1 @ 5.73% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 2.39% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.6% Total : 16.49% |
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