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League of Ireland Premier | Gameweek 29
Sep 1, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Oriel Park
DC

Dundalk
1 - 3
Derry

Hoban (90+6' pen.)
Horgan (19'), Leahy (25')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Patching (42', 77' pen.), Doherty (47')
McMullan (85')
Coverage of the League of Ireland Premier clash between Dundalk and Derry City.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Shamrock 1-0 Dundalk
Friday, August 25 at 7.45pm in League of Ireland Premier
Last Game: Bohemians 2-2 Derry
Friday, August 25 at 8.30pm in League of Ireland Premier

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dundalk win with a probability of 38.03%. A win for Derry City had a probability of 34.89% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Dundalk win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Derry City win was 0-1 (10.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.

Result
DundalkDrawDerry City
38.03% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07) 27.08% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02) 34.89% (0.092999999999996 0.09)
Both teams to score 50.58% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.25% (0.095999999999997 0.1)54.75% (-0.098999999999997 -0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.93% (0.079999999999998 0.08)76.07% (-0.082000000000008 -0.08)
Dundalk Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.07% (0.0039999999999907 0)27.93% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.45% (0.007000000000005 0.01)63.55% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Derry City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.18% (0.108 0.11)29.82% (-0.11 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.09% (0.13 0.13)65.9% (-0.13200000000001 -0.13)
Score Analysis
    Dundalk 38.03%
    Derry City 34.89%
    Draw 27.08%
DundalkDrawDerry City
1-0 @ 10.62% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
2-1 @ 8.2% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-0 @ 6.78% (-0.024 -0.02)
3-1 @ 3.49% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-0 @ 2.88% (-0.01 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.11% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.11%
4-0 @ 0.92% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 38.03%
1-1 @ 12.85% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 8.33% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-2 @ 4.96% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 0.94%
Total : 27.08%
0-1 @ 10.07% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 7.78% (0.018 0.02)
0-2 @ 6.1% (0.014 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.14% (0.017 0.02)
0-3 @ 2.46% (0.013 0.01)
2-3 @ 2% (0.011 0.01)
1-4 @ 0.95% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.4%
Total : 34.89%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Shamrock 1-0 Dundalk
Friday, August 25 at 7.45pm in League of Ireland Premier
Last Game: Dundalk 1-0 Sligo
Friday, August 11 at 7.45pm in League of Ireland Premier
Last Game: Dundalk 1-1 Shelbourne
Sunday, August 6 at 5pm in League of Ireland Premier
Last Game: Dundalk 2-2 KA
Thursday, August 3 at 7.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: KA 3-1 Dundalk
Thursday, July 27 at 7pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Dundalk 3-1 Magpies
Thursday, July 20 at 7.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Bohemians 2-2 Derry
Friday, August 25 at 8.30pm in League of Ireland Premier
Last Game: Derry 1-0 Tobol (5-6 pen.)
Thursday, August 17 at 7.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Derry 3-0 Drogheda
Sunday, August 13 at 6.30pm in League of Ireland Premier
Last Game: Tobol 1-0 Derry
Thursday, August 10 at 3pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: KuPS 3-3 Derry
Thursday, August 3 at 5pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Derry 2-1 KuPS
Thursday, July 27 at 7.45pm in Europa Conference League


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