SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Derry City | 23 | 18 | 43 |
| 3 | Dundalk | 23 | 16 | 42 |
| 4 | St Patrick's Athletic | 24 | 11 | 36 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Drogheda United | 23 | -13 | 25 |
| 9 | Finn Harps | 23 | -23 | 12 |
| 10 | University College Dublin | 23 | -32 | 12 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dundalk win with a probability of 71.78%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Finn Harps had a probability of 9.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dundalk win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.55%) and 3-0 (10.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.59%), while for a Finn Harps win it was 0-1 (4.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Dundalk in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Dundalk.
| Result | ||
| Dundalk | Draw | Finn Harps |
71.78% ( 0.01) | 18.34% ( -0.01) | 9.88% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 41.27% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.78% ( 0.01) | 48.22% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.63% ( 0.01) | 70.37% ( -0.01) |
| Dundalk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.91% ( 0.01) | 12.09% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.37% ( 0.02) | 37.63% ( -0.01) |
| Finn Harps Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 46.95% ( -0.01) | 53.05% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.32% ( -0) | 86.68% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Dundalk | Draw | Finn Harps |
| 2-0 @ 14.31% 1-0 @ 13.55% 3-0 @ 10.08% 2-1 @ 9.07% ( -0)3-1 @ 6.39% ( 0)4-0 @ 5.33% ( 0)4-1 @ 3.38% ( 0)5-0 @ 2.25% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.03% 5-1 @ 1.43% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.07% Other @ 2.89% Total : 71.77% | 1-1 @ 8.59% ( -0) 0-0 @ 6.41% ( -0)2-2 @ 2.88% ( -0)Other @ 0.47% Total : 18.34% | 0-1 @ 4.07% ( -0) 1-2 @ 2.72% ( -0)0-2 @ 1.29% ( -0)Other @ 1.8% Total : 9.88% |
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