SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Drogheda United | 23 | -13 | 25 |
| 9 | Finn Harps | 22 | -22 | 12 |
| 10 | University College Dublin | 22 | -34 | 9 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Dundalk | 23 | 16 | 42 |
| 3 | Derry City | 22 | 17 | 40 |
| 4 | St Patrick's Athletic | 24 | 11 | 36 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 55.82%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Finn Harps had a probability of 18.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.53%) and 1-2 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for a Finn Harps win it was 1-0 (7.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Derry City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derry City.
| Result | ||
| Finn Harps | Draw | Derry City |
18.96% ( 2.36) | 25.23% ( 0.79) | 55.82% ( -3.15) |
| Both teams to score 43.74% ( 1.84) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.49% ( 0.23) | 57.51% ( -0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.7% ( 0.18) | 78.3% ( -0.18) |
| Finn Harps Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.11% ( 3.06) | 44.89% ( -3.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.15% ( 2.35) | 80.85% ( -2.35) |
| Derry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.38% ( -1.14) | 20.63% ( 1.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.81% ( -1.84) | 53.19% ( 1.84) |
| Score Analysis |
| Finn Harps | Draw | Derry City |
| 1-0 @ 7.42% ( 0.55) 2-1 @ 4.69% ( 0.56)2-0 @ 2.97% ( 0.45)3-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.24)3-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.16)Other @ 1.64% Total : 18.96% | 1-1 @ 11.7% ( 0.47) 0-0 @ 9.26% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 3.7% ( 0.33)Other @ 0.56% Total : 25.22% | 0-1 @ 14.61% ( -0.67) 0-2 @ 11.53% ( -0.96)1-2 @ 9.24% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 6.07% ( -0.74)1-3 @ 4.86% ( -0.15)0-4 @ 2.4% ( -0.39)2-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.11)1-4 @ 1.92% ( -0.13)Other @ 3.22% Total : 55.8% |
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