SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Derry City | 22 | 17 | 40 |
| 4 | St Patrick's Athletic | 23 | 11 | 35 |
| 5 | Sligo Rovers | 22 | 7 | 32 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 23 | 23 | 51 |
| 2 | Dundalk | 22 | 16 | 41 |
| 3 | Derry City | 22 | 17 | 40 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Patrick's Athletic win with a probability of 36.44%. A win for Dundalk had a probability of 35.13% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Patrick's Athletic win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.69%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Dundalk win was 0-1 (11.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| St Patrick's Athletic | Draw | Dundalk |
36.44% ( -1.93) | 28.44% ( -0.18) | 35.13% ( 2.12) |
| Both teams to score 46.49% ( 0.78) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.15% ( 0.84) | 59.86% ( -0.84) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.87% ( 0.64) | 80.13% ( -0.63) |
| St Patrick's Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.61% ( -0.76) | 31.4% ( 0.77) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.23% ( -0.9) | 67.77% ( 0.91) |
| Dundalk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.76% ( 1.87) | 32.24% ( -1.87) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.27% ( 2.07) | 68.73% ( -2.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| St Patrick's Athletic | Draw | Dundalk |
| 1-0 @ 11.72% ( -0.64) 2-1 @ 7.69% ( -0.18)2-0 @ 6.79% ( -0.52)3-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.13)3-0 @ 2.62% ( -0.26)3-2 @ 1.68% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.96% Total : 36.43% | 1-1 @ 13.27% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 10.12% ( -0.32)2-2 @ 4.35% ( 0.12)Other @ 0.69% Total : 28.43% | 0-1 @ 11.45% ( 0.22) 1-2 @ 7.51% ( 0.36)0-2 @ 6.49% ( 0.44)1-3 @ 2.84% ( 0.27)0-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.28)2-3 @ 1.64% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.75% Total : 35.12% |
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